Storyline A1
'The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, low population growth, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis :
- fossil intensive (A1F);
- non-fossil energy sources (A1T);
- balanced across all sources (A1B).' (IPCC, 2000)
|
This scenario assumes continuing globalization and high economic growth, with the focus on the material aspects of life. We interpret it as the continuation of the 'modernization' process of the last 50 years in its Western form - 'westernization' or 'Americanization'. Democratic governments and market capitalism are seen as the only viable way forward. This includes further liberalization and privatization, secularization, emancipation of women and the like. A significant part of the population in the industrialized regions becomes a global rentier class.
Key elements
- material prosperity is the key driver for people and governments
- technology is the market-force-driven engine behind economic growth
- the role of governments is confined to upholding the 'rules of the game' and such accepted domains as defence and justice
- communication and trade nourish the development of 'global culture'
- globalization, liberalization and privatization trends intensify.
Resulting characteristics and promises
- very high economic growth where industrialized and less-industrialized countries converge, thanks to entrepreneurial dynamics and the disappearance of barriers in trade flows and movement of capital and labour, with a resultant rapid technology transfer
- economic prosperity trickles down within 2-3 generations from elites to population-at-large, reducing the existent income gaps within regions
- presumed correlation between income, desired family size and health services causes a slowdown in population growth to 9 billion by 2050, declining to 7 billion in 2100
- the leading consumer trend is towards fast-food, high-meat, Western-style diet
- high rate of innovations and capital stock turnover, and transition to a service- and experience-economy, allow a continuing decline in energy- and material-intensive economic activities
- rising income increases people's willingness and the government's possibilities to solve environmental issues such as urban air pollution, industrial water pollution and resource overexploitation, where internalizing external costs is the main policy instrument.
|
 |
Dominant motives
Worldly achievements; material wealth; Spaceship Earth; competition and external orientation and adventure; risk proneness; optimism with regard to the blessings of technology.