Scenarios

Storyline A2

Key elements

Resulting characteristics and promises

Dominant motives

'The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in high population growth. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change are more fragmented and slower than in other storylines.' (IPCC, 2000).

In this scenario, globalization slows down or reverses as nations and governments focus on cultural identity and traditional values. In large parts of the less-industrialized regions, the 'modernization' process of the last 50 years in its Western form is actively resisted by the large and young population. Autocratic, nationalist or fundamentalist regimes are one of the answers to rising social and political unrest in response to feelings of exclusion and marginalization. However, other answers to impending crises are also experimented with, leading to a successful renaissance of traditional lifestyles or high-tech niches. The 'cultural pluralism' of this world may take the form of fragmentation with accompanying protectionism and conflicts; for some regions it may be the road to rediscovering and strengthening one's own values, as in an autarchic China, an isolationist USA with its large high-tech affluence, and Africa redefined along tribal identities.

Key elements:

cultural identity and traditional values are dominant value-orientors
suspicion about technology as an agent of change
a strong role for governments, including with market interference
the role of governments confined to upholding the 'rules of the game' and such accepted domains as defence and justice
inward, protectionist orientation and suspicion of globalization
pluralism in styles of governance, economic régimes, employment skills and organization, resource management and the like.

Resulting characteristics and promises

Business-as-Usual economic growth in industrialized countries, but slow economic growth in less-industrialized countries.
a slowdown in the demographic transition in less-industrialized countries, resulting in a continuous population growth up to some 14 billion in 2100.
large gaps in economic prosperity between and within the regions.
regions oriented towards local/regional factors of production (labour, resources) in their organisation, technology and trade, and form regional alliances/blocks.
resource issues within some regions are increasingly dominate (economic and demographic) development - the environmental and resource 'hot spots'.
less valuation of material prosperity and more emphasis on traditional values, with revival of traditional religions.

Dominant motives

Nationalist/ethnic and cultural pride; traditional values; My Country; authority and obedience; fatalist with regard to the 'world problématique'; skepticism with regard to the blessings of technology.