Storyline B1
| 'This scenario assumes continuing globalization and economic growth, and a focus on the environmental and social - immaterial - aspects of life. We interpret it as the continuation of a balanced, transformed 'modernization' process. Governance at all levels and regulated forms of market capitalism are seen as the way forward. It includes the strengthening of NGOs concerned about issues of sustainability and equity. A modest and decent world: bureaucratic, regulated, but also in search of fairness and sustainability.' (IPCC, 2000). |
The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a converging world with the same low population growth as in the A1 storyline. However, there are rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, including improved equity but not additional climate initiatives.
Key elements
- material prosperity supplemented with concern on global and regional income equality and environmental integrity
- technology is a means to an end, not the end, and should be directed by societal concerns
- governance is effective at each scale level using the subsidiarity principle; a stronger role for the United Nations emerges
- communication and trade nourish the development of a 'global culture' but using global rules.
Resulting characteristics and promises
- high economic growth where industrialized and less-industrialized countries cenverge, with controlled removal of barriers in trade flows, and in movement of capital and labour
- active government policies to spread economic prosperity throughout the population
- rising income in combination with the education of women, family planning programmes and primary health care cause a slowdown in population growth to 9 billion by 2050, declining to 7 billion in 2100
- emphasis on quality-of-life accelerates the transition to a service- and experience-economy. This in combination with regulations and financial incentives, leads to a rapid decline in energy- and material-intensive economic activities
- as people become more open to the need for and relevance of more sustainable forms of development, governments can effectively solve environmental problems using regulation, ecotaxing and burden-sharing as the main policy instruments.
Dominant motives
Orientation on quality-of-life in a broad sense; Only-one-Earth; cooperation and internal orientation; risk-aversion; and optimism with regard to human nature.
