Scenarios

Storyline B2

Key elements

Resulting characteristics and promises

Dominant motives

'The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with moderate population growth, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented toward environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.' (IPCC, 2000).

This scenario is the least visualized and understood. Indeed, it is kind of a Mixed Green Bag, which was the first name it received in the SRES team. At regional and local levels, people increasingly perceive and seize the means to manage their own situation in an equitable and sustainable manner. In some regions this may take the form of decentralized settlements on the basis of bioregions; in others, society may opt for centralized but highly energy- and material-extensive infrastructure. Some regions may develop ways to maximize the sustainable use of their indigenous renewable resources; others may shift the focus to changing socio-political structures or find ways to turn consumption into less materialistic and more spiritually and psychologically rewarding activities. At global level, initiatives may be fairly ineffective for want of global institutions - a world of good intentions but no action.

Key elements

material prosperity supplemented with concern about regional income equality and environmental integrity
technology is a means, not an end, and should be directed by societal concerns
governance is effective at the national and regional level, not at the global level
communication and trade emphasize local and regional culture and advantages.

Resulting characteristics and promises

medium economic growth with slow convergence between industrialized and less-industrialized countries, with ad-hoc bilateral agreements on trade and capital, and labour movements
active government policies to spread economic prosperity across the regional population
rising income in combination with education of women, family planning programmes and primary health care slow down population growth to 10-11 billion by 2100
quality-of-life orientation in combination with regional resource scarcity facilitate the transition to a service economy which, in combination with regulations and financial incentives, lead to a decline in energy- and material-intensity of economic activities
as people become more open to the need for and relevance of more sustainable forms of development, governments can effectively solve environmental problems, with regulation and ecotaxing as the main policy instruments.

Dominant motives

Orientation on quality-of-life in a narrow sense; Mother Earth; local cooperation and internal orientation; risk-aversion; and optimism with regard to human nature.