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A1 family |
B1 family |
A2 family |
B2 family |
| Stabilizing population (9 billion in 2050) | Stabilizing population (9 billion in 2050) | Growing population (13.5 billion in 2100); slowdown in fertility decline with lower income | Growing population (10.5 billion in 2100); in some regions slowdown in fertility decline with lower income |
| Globalization, very high-growth high-tech | Globalization, high-growth high-tech | Focus on regional [cultural] identity; environment low-priority | Focus on regional [cultural] identity; local/regional environment high-priority; non-effective in global environmental issues |
| Market-based capital and labour allocation | Balanced government and market in [economic] development | - | - |
| Orientation on profits and [technological] opportunities Convergence in regional income and rapid diffusion of technology; no trade barriers |
Orientation on non-material quality of life aspects. Convergence in income and rapid diffusion of resource-efficient technology |
No convergence in regional income and slow diffusion of technology; trade barriers In some regions poor functioning markets and institutions |
Orientation on non-material quality of life aspects. Varied regional economic and technology developments |
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A1 family |
B1 family |
A2 family |
B2 family |
| Decline in energy-intensity due to innovations and high capital turnover rate | Strong focus on energy efficiency and sufficiency, service economy. | Low rate of energy efficiency innovations, due to trade barriers and capital scarcity | Focus on energy efficiency and sufficiency, service economy. |
| Preference for clean fuels and fast depletion cause fossil fuel prices to rise. This enables efficiency and zero-carbon options to penetrate, accelerated by learning-by-doing | Large preference for clean fuels and depletion cause fossil fuel prices to rise. This further accelerates efficiency and zero-carbon options to penetrate, accelerated by learning-by-doing | Coal use rises in many regions: seen as cheapest available fuel as oil and gas become more expensive/ unavailable. initially capital-intensive zero-carbon options penetrate in most regions only slowly | Preference for clean fuels and depletion cause fossil fuel prices to rise in some regions, inducing efficiency and zero-carbon options to penetrate, accelerated by learning-by-doing |
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A1 family |
B1 family |
A2 family |
B2 family |
| Fast increase in the volume of trade in food and feed | Fast increase in the volume of trade in food and feed | Moderate increase in the volume of trade in food and feed | Moderate increase in the volume of trade in food and feed |
| Fast increase in food and livestock productivity | Fast increase in food and livestock productivity with high efficiency of fertilizer use | Slow increase in crop and livestock productivity | Moderate increase in food and livestock productivity |
| Fast increase in per capita consumption of livestock products as a result of GDP increase | Per capita consumption of livestock products is 10% lower than in A1 scenario in 2050 and 20% lower than in A1 in 2100 | Slow increase in per capita consumption of livestock products as a result of GDP increase | Moderate increase in per capita consumption of livestock products as a result of GDP increase |
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