The IMAGE 2.2 implementation of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios

About IMAGE 2.2 products

This User Support System (USS) contains the data and viewer for the scenarios of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA), developed in 2003. The MA assessed the condition and trends related to the world's ecosystems, and the consequences for human well-being. As part of a larger modelling framework, the IMAGE model was used for implementing the following four contrasting scenarios, over the period up to 2100: Global Orchestration, Order from Strength, TechnoGarden and Adaptive Mosaïc.

The User Support System (USS) was developed as a tool for the user to explore certain features of the IMAGE 2.2. model, as developed by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL). The IPCC-SRES scenarios (A1B, A1T, A1F, A2, B1 and B2) were developed for the 1995-2100 period, using the IMAGE 2.2 version. These SRES scenarios can also be downloaded from the IMAGE model website.

After downloading, the scenarios can be visualised, analysed and compared with the IMAGE 2.2 User Support System (USS). The user cannot run the actual IMAGE 2.2 model. Documentation is provided on all the IMAGE 2.2 submodels and indicators.

Navigating through the USS is described in the "How To" section

Note that this is not the most recent version of the IMAGE model. Current analysis is carried out with the help of IMAGE 2.4.(Bouwman et al., 2006). Notable differences with the 2.2 model version, as well as further information on IMAGE 2.4, can be obtained from the IMAGE model website.

The viewer is developed in MyM and has recently been upgraded.

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios

The Millennium Ecosystem Scenarios were developed using both qualitative (“storytelling”) and quantitative tools (“modeling”). While these different approaches were used to enforce each other and consistency checks were made, it was also accepted that too some degree differences between the different elaborations of the scenarios could remain emphasizing uncertainty. The scenarios here presented are therefore the IMAGE implementation of the scenarios (other elaborations of the same scenarios exists). The IMAGE results, however, have formed the backbone of the quantitative chapter in the Scenario Volume of the MA (Alcamo, Van Vuuren and Cramer, 2005).

The set of MA scenarios explore changes in ecosystem services and their drivers across a set of four scenarios. These scenarios are:

• Global Orchestration (This scenario assumes a world with rapid economic growth based on a high level of socially conscious globalization and macro-scale policy reform. The main focus in this world is on human development and the approach towards environmental problems is reactive).
• Order from Strength (This scenario assumes a retreat from global institutions results in a fragmented world. In the scenario international blocks of states are formed that focus on national security and protectionism. As a result, there are large differences in wealth across the world. Technology development under this scenario is assumed to be slow).
• Technogarden (This scenario emphasises the development of green technologies, partly as substitutes for ecosystem services. The scenario also assumes a globalized world and a proactive approach to manage environmental problems.)
• Adapting Mosaic (In this scenario, local institutions are strengthened in order to protect ecosystems. Important elements in this scenario are learning processes at the local scale).

References and further reading

Alcamo J, van Vuuren D, Ringler C, Cramer W, Masui T, Alder J, Schulze K (2005)
Changes in nature's balance sheet: Model-based estimates of future worldwide ecosystem services. Ecology and society 10.

• to the article

In addition, the data itself may be referred to as “data on the IMAGE 2.2 implementation of the MA scenarios provided by the IMAGE-team”. Both in the chapter in the paper cited below further information on these scenarios can be found.

Alcamo J, Van Vuuren DP, Cramer W (2005) Change in Ecosystem Services and Their Drivers across the Scenarios. in Carpenter SR, Pingali P, Bennett EM, Zurek MB (eds.) Ecosystems and Human Well-being. Scenarios, Volume 2. Island Press, Washington.

• download chapter 9 (pdf)

Aim of IMAGE

The Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) is a dynamic integrated assessment modelling framework for global change. The main objectives of IMAGE are to contribute to scientific understanding and support decision-making by quantifying the relative importance of major processes and interactions in the society-biosphere-climate system. To accomplish this, IMAGE provides:

• dynamic and long-term perspectives on the systemic consequences of global change
• insights into the impacts of global change
• a quantitative basis for analyzing the relative effectiveness of various policy options to address global change.

Components of IMAGE 2.2

In the IMAGE 2.2 framework the general equilibrium economy model, WorldScan, and the population model, PHOENIX, feed the basic information on economic and demographic developments for 17 world regions into three linked subsystems:

• The Energy-Industry System (EIS), which calculates regional energy consumption, energy efficiency improvements, fuel substitution, supply and trade of fossil fuels and renewable energy technologies. On the basis of energy use and industrial production, EIS computes emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), ozone precursors and acidifying compounds.
• The Terrestrial Environment System (TES), which computes land-use changes on the basis of regional consumption, production and trading of food, animal feed, fodder, grass and timber, with consideration of local climatic and terrain properties. TES computes emissions from land-use changes, natural ecosystems and agricultural production systems, and the exchange of CO2 between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere.
• The Atmospheric Ocean System (AOS) calculates changes in atmospheric composition using the emissions and other factors in the EIS and TES, and by taking oceanic CO2 uptake and atmospheric chemistry into consideration. Subsequently, AOS computes changes in climatic properties by resolving the changes in radiative forcing caused by greenhouse gases, aerosols and oceanic heat transport.

Modelling approach of IMAGE 2.2

Historical data for the 1765-1995 period are used to initialise the carbon cycle and climate system. IMAGE 2.2 simulations cover the 1970-2100 period. Data for 1970-1995 are used to calibrate EIS and TES. Simulations up to the year 2100 are made on the basis of scenario assumptions on, for example, demography, food and energy consumption and technology and trade. Although IMAGE 2.2 is global in application, it performs many of its calculations either on a high-resolution terrestrial 0.5 by 0.5 degree grid (land use and land cover) or for 17 world regions (energy, trade and emissions).