Scenario narratives and their implementation in the IMAGE/TIMER model
The set of MA scenarios explore changes in ecosystem services and their drivers across a set of four scenarios. These scenarios are:
- Global Orchestration (This scenario assumes a world with rapid economic growth based on a high level of socially conscious globalization and macro-scale policy reform. The main focus in this world is on human development and the approach towards environmental problems is reactive).
- Order from Strength (This scenario assumes a retreat from global institutions results in a fragmented world. In the scenario international blocks of states are formed that focus on national security and protectionism. As a result, there are large differences in wealth across the world. Technology development under this scenario is assumed to be slow).
- Technogarden (This scenario emphasises the development of green technologies, partly as substitutes for ecosystem services. The scenario also assumes a globalized world and a proactive approach to manage environmental problems.)
- Adapting Mosaic (In this scenario, local institutions are strengthened in order to protect ecosystems. Important elements in this scenario are learning processes at the local scale).
References and further reading
Alcamo J, van Vuuren D, Ringler C, Cramer W, Masui T, Alder J, Schulze K (2005)
Changes in nature's balance sheet: Model-based estimates of future worldwide ecosystem services. Ecology and society 10.
Alcamo J, Van Vuuren DP, Cramer W (2005) Change in Ecosystem Services and Their Drivers across the Scenarios. in Carpenter SR, Pingali P, Bennett EM, Zurek MB (eds.) Ecosystems and Human Well-being. Scenarios, Volume 2. Island Press, Washington.
